Predicators of outcome after Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion
Predicators of outcome after Anterior Cervical Dsicectomy and Fusion: A Multivariate Analysis – (Spine; January 2009 – Volume 34 – Issue 2 Pg 161-166 )
Identifying prognostic factors is important to aid surgical decision-making and counselling of patients. Recent randomised control trial of disc arthroplasty devices have established a large cohort of patients treated with fusion and 2 year outcomes that allow analysis of prognostic factors.
Methods:
The patient cohort was the fusion control patients (n=488) from 2 randomised controlled studies of disc replacements. Surgical indicators were recalcitrant single- level subaxial radiculopathy of myelopathy. The surgery included anterior discectomy and fusion with allograft and plate. Patients were assessed by neck and arm pain, neck disability index (NDI), SF-36, neurologic examination and return to work. Overall clinical success was defined based on meeting all 4 of these criteria: >15-point improvement in NDI; maintained or improved neurologic examination; no serious adverse event related to the procedure; and no revision of the plate or graft. Patient’s outcomes were recorded at 3, 6, 12 and 24 months, with 77% follow up at 24 months. The outcome variables for this analysis were overall improvement in NDI. We studied the relationship between each of the outcome variablesand 26 potential important variables including demographics, medical conclusions, socio-economic factors and disease state. Two statistical models were used to explore the association between outocme variables and baseline measures: multivariate logistical regression of the full model with every prognostic variable included and the model with the variables selected by the stepwise selection procedure.
Results:
In the full-model logistic analysis for overall success, worker’s compensation and weak narcotic use were negative predicators, while higher preoperative NDI score and normal sensory function were positive predicators. For NDI success, only the preoperative NDI scores (higher disability predictive of improvement) appeared to have strong influence on the outcome. In the stepwise regression model, preoperative normal sensorey function was a positive predicator and worker’s compensation a negative predicators of overall clinical success. Greaer age, higher peroperative NDI score and gainful employment were positive predicators and spinal litigation was a negative predicator of NDI success.
Conclusion:
We found that important predicators of outcome were work status, sensory function, involvement in litigation and higher disability scores.